DigiTimes – The impact of the financial crisis will result in the semiconductor industry experiencing near record revenue declines in 2009, according to Gartner. Worldwide semiconductor revenues are forecast to reach US$194.5 billion in 2009, a 24.1% decline from 2008 revenues.
Market conditions have worsened since Gartner’s previous semiconductor outlook in mid-December of 2008. At that time, Gartner had forecast 2009 revenues to decline 16%.
The industry is expected to return to positive growth in 2010, growing 7.5%, followed by additional growth through 2012. Even with three years of increased revenues, the semiconductor industry will fail to return to 2008 revenue totals. In 2012, the worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to reach US$253.4 billion, still below 2008 revenue of US$256.4 billion.
“We believe that the financial crisis has reset the semiconductor market,” said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner. “After the 2001 recession, in which semiconductor sales plummeted by a record 32.5%, semiconductor sales took about four years to get back to 2000 levels.”
“The rebound after this recession will be similar to that in 2001 because there will be three years of modest growth after the worst year. However, we see a difference in year four, where we expect another overcapacity situation for the industry, especially in DRAM, because of significant manufacturing investments made in the second and third years of the recovery,” Mr. Lewis said.
